OPPOSITION TO POT MEASURE GAINS NARROW LEAD IN POLL

In Contrast to Earlier Results, Survey Finds That 48% of Likely
Voters Are Against Prop. 19

Californians who intend to vote in November narrowly oppose
Proposition 19, which would make the state the first to legalize
marijuana possession and sales, according to a recent survey.

The Field Poll found that 48% of likely voters oppose the measure and
44% support it, a contrast with two polls taken in May that showed
voters were leaning slightly in favor of the measure.

"History suggests that chances aren't good when you start out
behind," said Mark DiCamillo, the director of the poll. But he said
the results were close enough that the measure has a chance to win.
"It depends on the quality of the campaign."

The poll found a very high level of awareness of the initiative with
more than three-quarters of likely voters saying that they have heard
about it. Those voters back it 48% to 44%. But likely voters who had
not heard about the measure until they were told about it by the poll
takers oppose it by 2 to 1.

The initiative would allow people 21 and older to possess, grow and
transport marijuana for personal use, and would authorize cities and
counties to regulate and tax commercial sales.

DiCamillo said he expected opponents to assert that the measure will
lead to more crime and addiction, while proponents argue that it will
bring in tax revenue in a time of endless budget crises. "That's
where the tug of war is, societal impacts versus the financial
benefits," he said.

Roger Salazar, the spokesman for Public Safety First, an opposition
committee connected to law enforcement groups, said the poll shows
voters are becoming more skeptical. "Any time you have an initiative
written as confusingly as this one is, people aren't going to give it
the benefit of the doubt," he said. "There's no certainty in terms of
the revenues, there's no certainty of how this is going to impact law
enforcement and public safety."

Dale Sky Clare, a spokeswoman for the Proposition 19 campaign, said
the poll shows that the challenge will be to educate voters about the
regulations the measure imposes and the tax revenues it could
produce. "The folks that are familiar with the proposition itself,
that have educated themselves on the proposition, find that they like
it," she said. "This is going to be a nail-biter to the very end."

The Field Poll randomly surveyed 1,005 likely voters between June 22
and July 5, interviewing participants by telephone in English,
Spanish, Cantonese, Mandarin, Korean and Vietnamese. The poll had a
margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

The poll found that while white voters support the measure, Latino,
black and Asian American voters heavily oppose it. DiCamillo said he
was surprised by the intensity of the opposition. "There just might
be greater concerns within the ethnic community about the social
effects," he said.

The Bay Area is the only region that supports the measure. Los
Angeles County, where a quarter of the voters live, is split over it;
San Diego and Orange counties oppose it.

Men are evenly divided, but women oppose it by 9 points.

Likely voters younger than 30 heavily support it. They are joined by
likely voters between 50 and 64 who came of age during the Vietnam
War. Likely voters who are 65 and older oppose it 57% to 33%.