STUDY QUESTIONS DRUG MEASURE FIGURES Savings Of Treatment Instead Of Prison Term May Have Been Overstated Proponents of a ballot measure that would mandate treatment rather than jail for most non-violent drug offenders may have overstated the tax money that would be saved because relatively few of those offenders get jail now, according to a study by the criminal justice research program of the Rand Corp. More broadly, according to the report, there is precious little information now available on which to judge the potential effectiveness of the pro-drug treatment Proposition 36 for reducing drug and alcohol use. The study released Thursday suggests that the state undertake a number of studies to track the efficacy of drug treatment, whether the controversial measure passes or fails Nov. 7. However, a competing study by two San Francisco State University researchers says taxpayers aren't getting their money's worth now from jailing drug addicts. San Francisco State economics professors C. Daniel Vencill and Zagros Sadjadi estimate the drug war will cost an average taxpayer $368 in state taxes and $117 in federal taxes this year. The university researchers' report will appear in an upcoming journal of the Justice Policy Institute, a liberal San Francisco-based think tank funded in part by a key financial backer of Proposition 36. The Rand report, meanwhile, faults the initiative on other grounds, concluding that it would leave much of the implementation of its provisions to the discretion of prosecutors, courts, probation and parole officials because it does not create a separate entity to interpret it. If the measure passes, the Rand paper recommends studies to determine what crimes, if any, those treated go on to commit, discover whether prosecutors alter their plea-bargain processes, and assess the severity of drug problems among the general population. If it fails, Rand said, the state should try a pilot program to assess the impact of such a program on drug use and on the criminal-justice and social-service systems. Other findings: There is substantial doubt over exactly how many will actually qualify for the program. Proponents claim 37,000 a year. Failure of the proposition to provide funds for drug testing is a serious flaw. The Proposition 36 population may not do as well as others in treatment because of lack of motivation (jail or prison if they fail). The $120 million allocated to implement the measure may fall short of covering increased court and probation costs. The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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