OPINIONS VARIED ON IMPACT OF DRUG TREATMENT INITIATIVE

The State Department Of Corrections' Estimates Of Savings Are Less Than
Those Generated By The Legislative Analyst's Office

Impact On System

Here are the conflicting estimates of the impact on California's prison
system from Proposition 36, which requires treatment instead of prison or
jail for those convicted of possessing or using drugs for the first or
second time: The Legislative Analyst's Office predicts a reduction of
24,000 inmates, meaning the system will need 9,000 to 11,000 fewer beds. It
projects an annual savings of $200 million to $250 million in operating
costs, plus one-time savings of $450 million to $550 million because the
state won't have to build new prisons as rapidly.

The Department of Corrections predicts a reduction of 19,000 inmates,
meaning the system will need about 6,000 fewer beds.

It predicts lower savings, in part because drug offenders are usually in
cheaper dormitory-style prisons. Most of those are private prisons,
operated under contract with the department.

It says it needs more prisons to house hard-core inmates.

STOCKTON -- The Department of Corrections is disputing projections it will
need 9,000 to 11,000 fewer beds because of a voter initiative that bars
many drug users from prison.

Prison officials say that those estimates are overblown and that cost
savings to taxpayers are overestimated as well.

They say they must expand their drug treatment programs despite voters'
approval of Proposition 36 last month. Once the initiative takes effect
July 1, it will require that those convicted of using or possessing drugs
for the first or second time be sent to community treatment programs.

"There won't be a precipitous drop in the number of inmates as soon as this
goes into effect, but there will be a decline as more inmates are released
and more inmates are diverted to drug treatment," said department spokesman
Russ Heimerich.

The department estimates the initiative will lead to a need for about 6,270
fewer beds in five years. That compares with projections by the nonpartisan
Legislative Analyst's Office that the proposition will free up at least
9,000 beds -- the equivalent of two to three prisons.

The legislative office predicts that will save taxpayers $200 million to
$250 million annually in operating costs, plus one-time savings of $450
million to $550 million because the state won't have to build new prisons
as rapidly.

Department officials said the savings will be less because many drug users
go to dormitory-style prison camps or community correctional centers, most
of which are run by private firms. It costs an average of $23,000 to house
an inmate in prison for a year. However, a dormitory-style prison costs
$15,000 to $17,000 annually.

The projections by both the department and the legislative office rely in
large part on guessing whether California's 58 county prosecutors will
refuse to negotiate plea bargains with drug dealers, knowing that a drug
use or possession conviction will bring no prison time.

Convictions for more serious charges will bring longer sentences. In
addition, some drug users who would have gone to prison could commit new
crimes while they remain free and thus wind up incarcerated for longer periods.

Dan Carson, who wrote the legislative office's report, said prison
officials underestimated the benefits of treatment in keeping drug users
out of prison, as well as the number of repeat offenders who will avoid
extended sentences under the initiative.

"Basically, they assumed no effect at all from drug treatment programs,
which is kind of an awkward argument for the administration when they've
asked for hundreds of millions of dollars each year for treatment, on the
presumption treatment works," Carson said.

Three years ago, the department had 400 drug treatment beds. It now can
provide drug treatment for 5,000 inmates at a time, and this year's budget
adds 3,000 more beds.

That's still far short of the need, said Ernest Jarman, the department's
assistant director for substance abuse programs.

The crimes committed by at least 70 percent of inmates have some connection
to drugs, such as a burglary to support a drug habit, Jarman estimated. He
said at least 80 percent of inmates have a current or past drug problem.

The department has a Dec. 31 deadline to present a plan to provide
treatment to every inmate who needs it by 2005. But then it's up to the
governor and Legislature to decide whether to go ahead with the expansion.

California has recently become a national leader in inmate drug treatment
with programs like the one offered at the Northern California Women's
Facility at Stockton, said professor David Deitch.

Studies in Delaware, New York, Texas and California show intensive prison
treatment programs can be "startlingly effective," said Deitch, who heads
the federally financed Pacific Southwest Addiction Technology Transfer
Center at UC San Diego.

They can cut the rearrest rate for hard-core addicts as much as 30 percent
after three years -- but only if they are combined with community-based
treatment programs that support the inmates once they leave prison.

Because of budget constraints, only half of California inmates go through
those post-release programs.

The 15-month-old Stockton program is too new to have valid recidivism
statistics. But a study last year of three California programs found about
25 percent of those who completed post-release programs returned to prison
within two years, compared with half of those who had treatment only in
prison and two-thirds of those who had no treatment.

"I didn't want the program, but amazingly, it's paid off for me. I have
grandchildren now -- I don't need to be in prison," said inmate Linda
Jones, 49, of Stockton. "I never had a grandmother, and I want them to have
one.

"I'm really out for change," said Jones, who became addicted to heroin 14
years ago. "I'm hoping SAP (the substance abuse program) can give me the
change that I need."

The prison system's new emphasis on treatment hasn't been an easy sell to
some prison employees, said correctional counselor Velda Dobson, who helps
run the Stockton program.

"We're used to working on the correctional side, not the treatment side,"
she said.

In the beginning, employees would disparage what they termed "the
hug-a-thug program," she said, though things are getting better.

"I've got skid marks down the sidewalk" from dragging some corrections
officials into supporting the program, Dobson said.