US PREPARES FOR LONG BATTLE AGAINST HEROIN

The US may have won the first stages of its war against terrorism, but it
is in danger of losing the latest phase of the war on drugs in Afghanistan.

After the rapid military success against the Taliban regime, US
policy-makers are now grappling with an uncomfortable reality of life in
the newly-liberated country: the oppressive Taliban regime was more
effective at controlling the country's drugs trade than the new government
in Kabul.

The Taliban's ban on opium poppy two years ago was "enormously effective"
in reducing poppy crops almost entirely in areas under the regime's
control. The US estimates that Afghanistan produced 74 tons of opium last
year, compared to 3,656 tons the previous year.

However US officials believe the real goals of the Taliban's poppy ban was
to control the market more effectively.

With a world market share in heroin of more than 70 per cent, the Taliban
took what anti-narcotics officials call "a business decision". The ban
succeeded in driving up the price of opium and consolidating the Taliban's
grip on the heroin market. At the same time, opium stockpiles were large
enough to prevent any shortages, according to the Drug Enforcement
Administration.

US officials say the start of the war in Afghanistan led to a "fire sale"
as poppy growers moved their stockpiles out of the country and sold at low
prices, but the trade has now stabilised with the effective end of the war
against the Taliban.

DEA and Pentagon officials are now trying to find opium stockpiles inside
Afghanistan.

Steven Casteel, assistant administrator for intelligence at the Drug
Enforcement Administration, told a conference on narco-terrorism last
month: "Now we have a great opportunity here in Afghanistan to eliminate
that part of the drug market. It's going to be a long, consistent battle of
building an infrastructure, and doing it with our partners, such as the
UK." However, the task of renewing the opium poppy ban without the Taliban
regime remains daunting. While the new Afghan government has committed
itself to eliminating poppy cultivation, it has no effective law
enforcement agencies to do so.

The war on terrorism and the war on drugs meet in Helmand province in
southern Afghanistan. The province represents the world centre of opium
production, where farmers rely on opium as by far their biggest cash crop.
It is also the region with one of the largest concentrations of pro-Taliban
fighters. US officials cited reports last week that Mullah Mohammad Omar
had taken refuge in northern Helmand, close to Baghran, but the Taliban's
supreme leader appears to have escaped. US and Afghan officials face the
deadline of this year's poppy harvest in late March with no specific
proposals of how to tackle the drugs trade. The new government in Kabul has
yet to establish its preferred policies, while US forces have yet to gain
control of the poppy-producing region.

The policies under consideration fall into two categories - providing
alternative incomes for poppy farmers and instituting tougher law enforcement.

The most effective model is the Pakistani government's anti-opium policies
in its north-western provinces close to the Afghan border over the last
five years.

However US officials are unsure whether the Pakistani approach - tough law
enforcement - may have simply transferred poppy production across the
border. "We don't have law enforcement forces there at this time that in
any way could be expected to perform the involuntary eradication that has
taken place in Pakistan across the border," said a US state department
official. "That makes it a challenge." One proposal is to buy back this
year's poppy crops to help farmers pay off loans taken out to plant the
crops last year. However the notion of paying for drugs is controversial
and has little international support.

Another option is to give the poppy farmers food in exchange for ploughing
over their crops, at the same time as providing alternative work in
road-building and other construction for unemployed farm workers.

US officials say there is no precedent for alternative development policies
closing down the drug trade on their own. They cite the case of Bolivia,
where the US funneled millions of dollars to drugs farmers without effect.

For the eradication of poppy crops to be successful, the US believes
international powers need to support the Afghan government, particularly
European countries which consume far more Afghan heroin than the US.

"This is not something where the US or any other country can conduct these
programmes," said a state department official. "They are going to have to
be conducted by the Afghan government and Afghan institutions. If they
don't have the political will, the international community cannot control it."